Tuesday, January 29, 2013

Where Could Alex Smith End Up Next Year?

So we have one of those rare Super Bowl weeks where not two quarterbacks are regularly covered but three quarterbacks are. Here the Alex Smith story is one of the 5 biggest story lines at Superbowl week including: two brother coaches, Ray Lewis' last game, Kaepernick's meteoric rise, and Obama's football safety remarks. And unless Kaepernick suffers some injury or the 49ers blow out the Ravens and Harbaugh gives Smith a series late. The next time that Alex Smith will play on in a NFL game won't be until the coming season. So unless one of the QB desperate teams just has to have Smith and pulls the trigger on a trade, he will more than likely be cut prior to the March 14th deadline where the 49ers would have to pay 1 million as opposed to 3 million to cut him after March 14th. So where will Alex Smith end up?



There are nine teams with QB situations that could spur them to make a change this off-season. Those nine teams are the Cardinals, Vikings, Browns, Raiders, Chiefs, Jets, Bills, Titans, are Jaguars. Now of those teams I don't see Bills making a change from Fitzpatrick to Smith when they have so much money committed already to a game manager type QB. Jets are too cap stricken to sign him outright and need to improve all over the field to trade picks for Smith. Titans I feel would prefer to give the young Jake Locker more time over bringing in Smith. Same situation with the playoff Vikings and their young starter in Christian Ponder. And the Raiders want a homegrown QB they're tired of QB retreads like Carson Palmer and Smith. So that leaves the Cardinals, Browns, Chiefs, and Jaguars as the likely spots Alex Smith could be starting next season.

If Alex Smith is the vindictive and revenge type, the fuck you destination of quarterback desperate teams would be the Arizona Cardinals. He would be able to face division opponent San Fran twice a year. What better way to prove that your to better QB over Kap, if he believes so, then go to a division rival. (clearly Kap is the better QB) He would have weapons in Larry Fitzgerald and Malcolm Floyd to throw to. But the Cardinals had the worst O-Line in football this year and Smith is a game manager not game changer. He would also have to face the Seahawks and upstart Rams 4 times a year, as the NFC West is arguably the NFL deepest division.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have overhauled the front office and have former Seahawks defensive Gus Bradley as their new coach. Blaine Gabbert has only ever looked good in shorts and a t-shirt during combine workouts. Chad Henne in his five years in the league has yet to throw more TD than INT in a season. The AFC South is home to the Texans and Colts who both made the playoffs this year and the Titans certainly aren't the NFL's doormat team. So if Bradley liked what he saw in Smith in his four years in Seattle and thinks he can with him. Then he should look no further then his predecessor's one year existence as evidence that winning is what matters.



The Cleveland Browns have similarly cleaned house with Mike Holmgren's departure. Mike Lombardi and Rob Chudzinski lead the way and I can't see them tying their success to a 29 year old second year player Brandon Weeden who was a poltergeist in a season of young QBs. The Browns have some pieces in a decent O-line based around LT Joe Thomas and last years 3rd overall pick Trent Richardson at RB. Yet the AFC North is the deepest division in the AFC and the Browns are clearly the whipping boy of the division. The Ravens are in the Super Bowl, Bengals made the playoffs for the second year in a row behind the young passing tandem of Dalton and Green, and the Steelers still have two time Super Bowl champion Ben Roethlisberger. Making a brutal six games on the schedule each season.

Kansas City to me is the most logical landing place for Smith. They have the number one overall pick in an unusually down year for quarterbacks. New head coach Andy Reid is known for bring out the best in a variety of quarterbacks. The Chiefs despite their league worst 2-14 record still featured five Pro Bowlers. An above average O-line and solid running game with Jamal Charles to aid in play action passing game. The Chiefs play in the worse division of the four possible landed spots for Smith. Sure Manning and the Broncos are there but the Raiders and Chargers provide four winnable games a year. The Chiefs provide the best complement of talent and winnable schedule that could prove favorable for Alex Smith.



So next September Alex Smith will be wearing another uniform. The revenge destination is the Arizona Cardinals and sensible locations in Cleveland and Jacksonville. But Alex Smith's quickest route back to the playoffs is in Kansas City. And the playoffs is where true redemption is earned.

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